This workshop will look at the multiple roles & requirements of forecasts within companies including interactions between HQ & local affiliate companies. Providing a clear understanding of data, extrapolation techniques & Excel skills, UK-focused business analysts will leave with the key skills that will enable them to immediately perform analysis and build spreadsheet models in a fast, accurate and effective manner, adding value to their organisation. Suitable for delegates with any or no previous forecasting experience, although delegates should be familiar with the basics of Excel.
The intention of this workshop is to:
1.Provide context of how forecasts & models are used within healthcare companies & the industry in general, to drive business-critical decisions.
2.Give a flavour of the different approaches to forecast modelling, different available platforms / programmes & software and where is most appropriate to use them vs. customised Excel spreadsheet models
- Short-term tactical forecasting (12-18 month focus)
- Mid-range strategic forecasting (3+ years)
- Long-range strategic forecasting (5+ years)
- In-market (launched) vs development phase (pre-launch) product support & needs from forecasting
- Static vs dynamic forecasting methods
- Specialist vs GP product forecasting
- Novel techniques for estimating market share through targeted patient capture
- Aligning forecasting methodology, structure & assumptions/input variables to support marketing strategy & tactics
- Process for building a forecast model
3.Align components of the workshop to daily role requirements & functionality of business analysts working for UK-based healthcare companies.
“Steering the business”:
- Dealing with forecast requests from centralised functions (European/Global, international departments – top down / bottom up forecast ‘push’ )
- Completing pre-formatted templates
- Defending forecast submissions
- Reviewing & challenging top-down centralised forecasts for the UK.
“Running the business”:
- Supporting sales & brand teams to set sales targets
- Helping to select sales & marketing activities to optimise available budget
- Tracking ROI on selected market activities
- Managing supply chain forecasting & demand planning activities
- Multi-functional team working & support to market access processes
- Exploring customer sales volumes vs price discounts with a view to supporting price discounts per customer
This last item will then be used as a working example to focus on emergence of supra-regional tenders (consolidation of buying groups) & how to forecast the dynamics of this new market structure.
4.Provide hands-on practical sessions in Excel
- Working with data in Excel
- Structuring data to enable use of Pivot objects for rapid analysis & extraction
- Auto filters & other database / reference functions built into Excel to convert data into usable format to feed into & provide basis for forecasts
- Short-term extrapolation techniques (avoiding straight lines & exponentials)
5.Increase efficiency & accuracy when dealing with data & working in Excel
- Best practice (across industry & within Excel)
- Key board shortcuts
- Large scale manipulation of data & formulae
- Working within Excel frameworks to organise data & calculations in optimal layout to minimise capacity for entry input errors
- Formatting & workbook structure
6.Provide an overview of available data sources that would potentially be of use & applicability for UK operating companies for:
- Demographic data
- Patient populations
- Diagnosis rates & hospital episode statistics
- Prevalence rates & disease burden by health authority / region within the UK
- Volume & prescription data
- Bridging data gaps & finding relevant useful information
All delegates will be required to bring with them a laptop (with power cable) with Excel installed, since at least half the workshop will be practical sessions using Excel. Delegates will leave the day with knowledge & skills that can immediately be put into use.
Novice forecasters – can expect to leave the workshop equipped with sufficient knowledge to:
- Understand the process of building forecast models
- Get started building their own models
- Use Excel more efficiently & with a wider scope
- Know what questions to ask (both of providers & internal stake holders)
- Understand if a model they have inherited or commissioned is robust & viable
- Identify mission-critical variables / parameters essential to the problem in hand
- Know where to source robust UK data to build & populate their models & forecasts
- Be able to defend a robust forecast against internal (and external) challenge
Experienced forecasters will:
- Gain deeper insights into their business processes
- Learn new techniques & efficiencies in Excel
- Expand their knowledge of data handling methods
- Learn new methods for forecasting market share
- Increase their forecasting utility through aligning methodology with marketing drivers & activities
- Increase transparency of spreadsheet models through better layout, formatting & structure
- Deepen use of forecast models throughout their business to drive & support better business decisions